Suara.com – Indonesia is included in 15 countries that have the potential to experience recession economy Bloomberg version. However, according to researchers from the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS) Hasran, the potential is very small due to the awakening momentum Indonesian economy strong after the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We need to know that current inflation in developed and developing countries is not solely caused by global disruption. Most of it is caused by the internal policies of each country,” he said.
In an interview with Warta Ekonomi —Suara.com network, He said that global inflation had occurred since the COVID-19 pandemic when a number of countries began to inject stimulus to support their economies.
Meanwhile, according to him, the cause of the shortage of commodities is due to an increase in demand while the supply chain is still disrupted so that the price rises significantly.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine make this problem even more difficult to contain as both are big exporters of the energy sector, wheat and sunflower oil.
“European countries and the US are very affected by the increase in food and energy prices, so it is not surprising that inflation there is so high,” he said.
However, this is quite different from Indonesia because the government still maintains subsidized fuel prices even though world oil prices have risen.
“Although we are wheat importers, the impact is not directly felt on the prices of commodities that use wheat as raw materials such as instant noodles and bread,” he said.
As of June 2022, Indonesia’s inflation has reached 4.35%, the highest in the last five years. However, according to him, it is not due to global factors and more to the availability of food, especially commodities such as chili, eggs and onions.
“As long as the government maintains food supply and has not increased subsidized fuel prices, Indonesia’s inflation will still tend to be safe,” he added.